8 Storylines for CFB Week 12: The World Moves on, Another Day, Another Drama, Drama
Look what you made me do...
Oh hi! Hope you didn’t think you’d gotten rid of me just because America’s idiocy pushed me to do something not even cancer could — take a week off from previewing college football. As it happens, I’ve also been keeping myself busier than any unemployed person should be — please, someone hire me so I have less work to do! But yeah, it was hard to bring myself to do anything for a few days there and given this is voluntary, I volunteered for a week off.
Found a place to hang out online instead of Twitter since being there makes me sick to my fucking stomach. By the time anyone reads this, my Twitter will have been shot dead today at the senseless age of 16. Started watching Doctor Odyssey, which I can confirm is batshit crazy in all the dumbest ways, thus I couldn’t love it more. Also started a Battlestar Galactica (2004) rewatch/Ori and the Blind Forest replay because COMFORT FOOD, AMIRITE? Didn’t sleep much, but when have I ever? Anyway, football?
1. “I’ve Got a List of Names and Yours is in Red, Underlined” — #7 Tennessee (8-1, 5-1) at #12 Georgia (7-2, 5-2)
Amidst the slop of the SEC’s annual November Cupcake Week and a slew of mismatches elsewhere, someone deigned to leave CFB lovers one massive rivalry game with the very real potential to end the preseason National Champion favorite’s Playoff hopes with two games left in the regular season. Tennessee will look to snap a seven-game skid in the series while seeking its second win in Athens in 18 years. UT is 1-7 at UGA since 2006 and has lost 3 straight since a 34-31 win in 2016.
Georgia is already on the outside of this week’s Playoff projection despite sitting at No. 12 in the CFP Top 25, with No. 13 Boise State getting a projected Automatic Bid as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. A third loss would leave the ‘Dawgs in need of complete collapse elsewhere to sneak into the field (if that chance even exists), particularly given that their remaining schedule includes the biggest cupcake the FBS has to offer (UMass) and a home game against Georgia Tech that wouldn’t move the needle either.
The ‘Dawgs have won a school-record 28 straight at home since losing to South Carolina 20-17 in 2OT in October 2019. They’ve also won nine straight at home against AP Top 10 opponents, starting with a win over No. 6 South Carolina in 2013 and since a loss to No. 4 LSU in 2009.
Tennessee doesn’t look like it’d be out of it with a loss, but they likely would need help as they have their own cupcake (UTEP) and a similar Rivalry Week situation to Georgia with a team you can definitely lose to (Vanderbilt) but won’t get a whole lot of credit for beating. In addition to being desperate for a win over a rival after seven straight L’s, the Vols have lost 27 straight on the road to teams ranked higher than 15th in the AP Poll dating to their second-most recent win over the ‘Dawgs.
UT snapped a 27-game road skid against the top 15 in their win at No. 15 Oklahoma in September, and given how much Oklahoma sucks, I don’t feel like I’m cheating with the “higher than 15th” framing. Either way you look at it, the last time they beat a team ranked as high as Georgia on the road was 2006 at No. 10 Georgia.
There are questions about both teams’ starting quarterbacks, though for rather different reasons. In Tennessee’s case, the issue is the health of Nico Iamaleava while in Georgia’s it’s the potential that Carson Beck has been cursed.
Iamaleava is expected to start, unless there’s a setback in his progression through concussion protocol, as of Thursday reports by credible sources on a website I’m not particularly inclined to link to from here anymore. He was off to a hot start last weekend against Mississippi State before being knocked out of the game, going 8-for-13 for 174 yards and a pair of touchdowns for a 224.7 efficiency rating that would be his season-high.
Those two touchdowns against Miss St. matched his total from his previous four games, when he’d averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt with a 121.6 efficiency rating, two touchdowns and two picks.
Kidding aside, I don’t think it’s fair to blame Carson Beck’s regression on a Cavinder Curse when there are perfectly obvious football reasons for the precipitous drop in Beck’s stats detailed below (or when there are not obvious football reasons, leave her out of this!). Beck’s real issue is he no longer has an elite offensive line, otherworldly beast of a security blanket in Brock Bowers and highly efficient run game to lean on. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln…
He’s already been sacked three more times this season (14 in 335 dropbacks) than he was last season (11 in 428) despite 93 fewer pass attempts, while UGA’s 83rd averaging 4.15 yards per rush after finishing last year 11th at 5.34 (and finishing the last three seasons no lower than 14th).
2. Cougars After Dark? Spicy… — Kansas (3-6, 2-4) at #6 BYU (9-0, 6-0)
What does Cupcake Week mean? Unbeaten No. 6 BYU’s visit from 3-6 Kansas is the only one of this week’s eight games involving a team in Playoff position to have a spread of fewer than 9.5 points as of Thursday afternoon. It also kicks at the decidedly After Dark hour of 10:15 eastern and BYU seems hardwired to live on the edge, so…yeah, expect shenanigans.
The Cougs improved to 9-0 thanks to a second half shutout and a last-second FG to sneak past Holy War rival Utah in last week’s late night shenanigan-fest, the fifth 9-0 start in program history and second in the last five seasons (others: 2020, 2001, 1984, 1979). It was BYU’s fourth win by six or fewer points, tied for the most in the FBS (Arkansas State and Texas Tech each also have four).
BYU’s picked off at least one pass in every game this season and has multiple interceptions in each of its last six games. The Cougars’ 16 picks are in a four-way tie for second-most in the FBS, one shy of the woke army’s 17 (tied with JMU, SJSU and Minnesota). Their six games with multiple interceptions are tied with Iowa State, JMU, SJSU and Texas for the most in the FBS this season.
Kansas has been one of the bigger bummers of the season, if only because Jalon Daniels has brought me (and all CFB obsessives) so much joy over the last few years and it would’ve been nice to see him go out with bang. The Jayhawks have been playing better since starting 1-5, though, and can do something positive and cool for the first time with a win this week.
A win over BYU after knocking off then-AP No. 17 Iowa State last week would give Kansas wins over AP-ranked opponents in back-to-back games for the first time in program history.
Daniels has been outstanding over the last four games (Kansas is 2-2) with 12 total touchdowns (8 pass, 4 rush) and just 1 INT in that span while averaging just over 300 total yards per game (has 1,217 total yards).
KU has never lost to BYU, but of course they’ve only played twice previously — the Jayhawks won in both the first meeting as Big 12 rivals last year in Lawrence (38-27) and on Christmas 1992 in the Aloha Bowl (23-20).
3. Hunting a Heisman…and a Playoff berth? — #17 Colorado (vs Utah) and WR/CB Travis Hunter
Colorado’s not in playoff position yet, but Coach Prime’s Buffs are in very good position to get there with two more games they’ll be favored in (at Kansas, vs Oklahoma State) and guaranteed a spot in the Big 12 Championship (with an automatic bid to the Playoff on the line) if they win out.
Credit to the Buffs, they’ve taken care of business since getting walloped by Nebraska in Week 2 and leaving many of us (myself included) expecting another losing season. Do wins over Baylor, UCF, Arizona, Cincinnati and Texas Tech since then impress me all that much? Not really, but they’re not losses and the one team to beat them in conference (Kansas State) couldn’t avoid its own stumbles.
The real headline here, of course, is Heisman favorite Travis Hunter. His being at the top of that list, given Colorado’s winning ways of late, is also the much less surprising aspect of this story because holy shit is it fun watching Travis Hunter play football.
Hunter’s unique brilliance honestly defies both stats and research — what’s there to look up or say about something we see once in a generation, if we’re lucky? He is, without exaggeration, one of the best receivers (10th in receiving yds/gm, t-6th in receiving TD, 7th in catches) and one of the best corners (89.3 coverage grade at PFF is 4th-best in FBS) in the country. Beyond that, the wow factor is off the charts — sometimes even on plays that don’t count.
4. Is Wisconsin the new Arizona? — #1 Oregon (at Wisconsin)
I’ll be honest, I think this is the best Oregon team I’ve rooted for since adopting them as my favorite team in 2010, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. That said, I do have one concern: I still don’t know who to be terrified of seeing on their schedule in November in the Big Ten yet. In the Pac-12, there was no question: any time Oregon went to the state of Arizona late in the season it was cause for a weeklong panic attack. Could Wisconsin be the new Arizona?
Camp Randall is unquestionably one of the toughest places to play in the country, I know that much. There was never much reason for the Arizona foibles beyond Oregon gonna Oregon, so I’m not gonna pick at Wisconsin to figure out why they can beat the Ducks. If it happens I’ll probably be here next week with a litany of ways Oregon let it slip away, not things Wisconsin does to beat them.
Dillon Gabriel’s having a fantastic season and he’s setting all sorts of FBS records because of his COVID year, and I love all of it as an Oregon fan, obviously. He shouldn’t win the Heisman unless Travis Hunter and Ashton Jeanty both become actively bad for the rest of the season. That said, he’s done an excellent job getting me over the loss of Bo Nix (obligatory: best believe I’m still Bojeweled).
Gabriel’s ninth in the FBS averaging 284.8 passing yards per game, tied for sixth with 22 passing touchdowns, and sixth with an efficiency rating of 168.4. Very nice season, deserving of a lifetime achievement invite to NYC, and if he wins I might riot.
5. Only Because Bestie 3 And I Finally Made Successful Dinner Plans — #23 Missouri (7-2, 3-2) at #21 South Carolina (6-3, 4-3)
Honestly, I would’ve skipped this game if this week’s schedule wasn’t such a steaming pile of shit. But Bestie 3 is a proud Gamecock and we finally had an excellent dinner earlier this week, so I’ll give the ‘Cocks a quick glance.
South Carolina’s Bowl eligible for the third time in Shane Beamer’s four seasons and appearing in the CFP rankings for the second season out of the last three. The Gamecocks have won three straight after dropping three of four, routing Oklahoma (35-9), then-No. 10 Texas A&M (44-20) and then-AP No. 24 Vanderbilt (28-7) by a combined 107-36 margin. A 10-win season isn’t out of the question, but would require a win in Death Valley to close out the regular season which would probably supersede the round number achieved in a subsequent Bowl win in most Gamecock fans’ minds.
This Missouri team bums me the hell out. I feel like Luther Burden having one 100-yard game this deep into the season and no touchdown catches in his last six games could only ever happen in this bullshit timeline we’ve wandered into.
Mizzou’s looking for a sixth straight win over South Carolina and I hope it doesn’t happen for them. Long Live Kofi Cockburn (inside joke for an audience of Bestie 3).
6. Ashton Jeanty: Still Extremely Cool — #13 Boise State (at SJSU) RB Ashton Jeanty
The only reason I can’t say I would 100% give Travis Hunter my Heisman vote if the season ended today and I had one is that Ashton Jeanty is, like I said, still extemely fucking cool. But I think he’d be a close second for me at the moment.
As the FBS leader by a million averaging 192.7 rushing yards per game, Jeanty’s on pace to break Barry Sanders’ official single-season FBS record of 2,628 rushing yards in Boise State’s 14th game of the season, something the Broncos can clinch this week with a win or UNLV loss to lock up a spot in the MW Championship Game. If they stay on their current track to the College Football Playoff, they could potentially end up with a 15-or-16-game season that would put Barry’s Bowl-inclusive 1988 record in play as well.
7. Southeastern X Southwest Could Create Some Abbreviation Problems… — #3 Texas (at Arkansas)
There’s approximately zero meat on the bone here, Texas should have little trouble with the Hogs. But hey look! It’s Texas and Arkansas, a quintessential Southwest Conference rivalry which has finally taken its final form as, obviously, a Southeastern Conference rivalry. I think that might be the first time I’ve ever written out SEC, it felt weird.
The teams last met on 9/11/2021 in Fayetteville, their first regular season meeting in 13 years with a Texas Bowl clash in between. Both of those, and four of six meetings as non-conference rivals, were won by Arkansas, which also took the last showdown as Southwest Conference rivals in 1991. Texas, however, lead the series 56-23 all-time and led it 54-19 before the Southwest fell apart.
8. Everyone Else, Just Don’t Fuck It Up — #2 Ohio State (vs Northwestern), #4 Penn State (at Purdue), #8 Notre Dame (vs Virginia), #10 Alabama (vs Mercer), #14 SMU (vs Boston College), #15 Texas A&M (vs New Mexico State)
The spreads on these games, in the order listed above, as of Thursday: 28.5, 28.5, 23.5, not listed because Mercer is an FCS team and Alabama is Alabama, 19.5 and 39. If any of these teams loses, they should be disqualified from the Playoff. But of course, these days, “disqualified” is Russian for “about to be America’s king.”