11 Storylines for CFB Week 7: the Storm is Coming
Ohio State visits Oregon while Texas and Oklahoma get fried everything
I told you weeks ago Indiana was starting 6-0! I absolutely did not tell you Vandy was beating Alabama, though. With the dust settling from Blood Week and a titanic test on tap for my Ducks, I hope they don’t join Kalen DeBoer in seeing the scoreboard and running for their lives…
1. Flowers for the Bloodletters — Arkansas, Minnesota, Vanderbilt, and Washington
Maybe I just don’t want to think about what’s ahead of my Ducks yet but I can’t move on to Week 7 without recognizing the heroes of Blood Week, the first quartet of unranked teams to beat teams ranked 11th or better in the same week since 2016. They’re all still unranked after their big wins, but almost all of these bloodletters deserve their flowers.
Arkansas beat #4 Tennessee for its first win over a Top 5 opponent since 2007 and its first home win over one this century (since beating #3 Tennessee in 1999). Ja’Quinden Jackson’s 3rd quarter rushing touchdown made him the first Hog with a rush TD in the first six games of a season since 2010 (Knile Davis).
Minnesota had lost two in a row to start Big Ten play before its first win over brand new Big Ten rivals USC since 1955 (sixth meeting since). QB Max Brosmer went 15-for-19, raising his completion percentage to 67.6% (on pace for the Minnesota single-season record) and ran for a career-high three touchdowns.
Vanderbilt was 0-60 all-time against Top 5 opponents before its win over Alabama and had lost 23 straight games to Alabama on the field (there were forfeited and vacated games) dating to 1984. The ‘Dores received their most AP Poll points this week in seven years (since Week 4 of the 2017 season). As someone who’s been touting Diego Pavia for the better part of two years I was on cloud nine.
Washington was favored against Michigan and I think pretty much everyone knew Michigan wasn’t really one of the 10 best teams in the country by last week but had ranked them there at the beginning of the season and hadn’t been given enough reason to drop them yet. No flowers for Washington but I will say it’s very funny they’re the team that snapped Michigan’s 27-game Big Ten win streak.
2. “My Team is Losing, Battered and Bruising” — #2 Ohio State at #3 Oregon
What was always going to be a Top 10 matchup became a Top 3 one instead thanks to Blood Week’s AP Poll shakeup as Oregon returned to its position in the preseason Poll, matching its highest ranking in the last 10 seasons. The Ducks will look to beat OSU for just the second time in 11 meetings all-time, but won the last in Columbus three years ago.
Oregon was never ranked in the AP Top 5 in the 20th century and is playing in only its seventh Top 5 matchup, second in the regular season and first that isn’t at a neutral site. They’re 2-4 in Top 5 matchups including a memorable loss last year.
OSU has played as many Top 5 matchups since 2021 as Oregon has played all-time, but is also 2-4 in its last six such games and has lost the last three (the last two years to Michigan and a CFP Semifinal loss to Georgia in between). The Buckeyes are 9-12 in Top 5 matchups this century including 1-3 on the road — the road win came in 2006 at #2 Texas, last year’s loss at #3 Michigan was their first road Top 5 matchup since a September 2008 loss at #1 USC.
Before the preseason, the Ducks last reached #3 in September 2021, their only other time ranked this high since losing the inaugural CFP CG to end the 2014 season.
Ohio State is joined only by Tennessee in the FBS top five in both scoring offense (46.0 points per game, t-4th) and scoring defense (6.8 points allowed per game, leads FBS). It’s joined only by Ole Miss in the top five in success rate on both offense (55.7%, 5th) and defense (33.0%, 5th). If you’re keeping score at home that makes the Buckeyes the only team in the top five in both scoring and success rate on offense and defense.
OSU QB Will Howard matched his career-highs with 4 passing touchdowns and 5 total touchdowns — accounting for all five OSU scores in the game and four after halftime — in last week’s win over Iowa. Howard also completed a season-high 84.0% of his passes in the game, but his 209 pass yards were a season-low and he threw an interception for the third straight game.
True freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith had 4 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown, extending his career-opening streak to five straight games with 70 yards and a TD — only SJSU’s Nick Nash (in his sixth season of CFB) joins Smith with that many games hitting those marks this season.
Ohio State has held all five opponents to 14 or fewer points and in addition to points allowed also leads the FBS in total yards allowed per game and per play. It will take a bit of a step up in competition with Oregon, which is easily the highest-scoring offense it’s faced yet (35.0 points per game, 32nd in FBS). Next-highest is Marshall (30.4, 61st) while OSU’s first two Big Ten opponents rank 85th (Iowa, 27.0) and 114th (Michigan State, 19.8)
The Oregon offense hasn’t been as prolific as in recent years, but the Ducks defense should pose the toughest test so far for OSU — something I feel more and more confident saying as getting shredded by Ashton Jeanty becomes less and less problematic by the week.
The Ducks have one of the most prolific passers in FBS history in Dillon Gabriel (16,314 passing yards are 4th all-time and 136 pass TD are 3rd) completing a career-high 77.8% (previous high: 69.3% last year at Oklahoma). But they’ve struggled to finish drives with 4.1 points per scoring opportunity (aka trip inside the 40-yard line), 67th in the FBS according to CollegeFootballData after leading the FBS at 5.2 last year.
The defense has allowed just 37 points in three games since outlasting Boise State 37-34 and has held four of its five opponents this season to 14 or fewer. It’s 21st in points allowed per game, 10th in total yards allowed per game, 13th in defensive success rate and top 25 in rushing defense despite giving up 192 yards to Jeanty (allowing 96.5 rushing yards per game in the others).
3. A Red River Rarity — #1 Texas vs #18 Oklahoma (at the Cotton Bowl/State Fair of Texas)
The 120th meeting between Oklahoma and Texas will be the first one since 2008 to involve the #1 team in the AP Top 25 and the first time Texas has brought the top ranking into the Red River game in 40 years, since a 15-15 tie in 1984 against #3 Oklahoma.
#1 Texas hasn’t beaten Oklahoma since a 19-0 win over an unranked Sooners team in 1965 (the time it was #1 prior to 1984). Texas has never beaten a ranked Oklahoma team while it ranked #1 (1984 was the only opportunity).
#1 teams are 8-2-1 in Red River games all-time — Texas is 3-0-1 as #1 against OU and Oklahoma is 6-2 as #1 against UT but lost 45-35 to #5 Texas the last time either team was #1 in 2008.
Oklahoma has won five of the last six meetings dating to the 2018 Big 12 Championship and seven of nine since UT last won two out of three in the series (as it’s trying to this time). Texas won 49-0 two years ago in the only meeting between two unranked teams in the last 25 years.
Texas is more than a two touchdown favorite as of Sunday (-14.5) with both teams coming off byes and Quinn Ewers expected to make his return after his injury gave the world a taste of Arch Manning.
According to Covers.com, this would be the first time OU is an underdog by at least two touchdowns in any game since facing a 14.5-point spread against Alabama in the 2018 CFP Semifinals (lost 45-34). They haven’t won a game as a two-touchdown underdog since a different game against Alabama (won 45-31 as 17-point underdogs in Sugar Bowl capping 2013 season).
Ewers was the Heisman favorite at the time of his injury and he’d currently be tied for 6th in the FBS in completion percentage (73.4%), 25th in pass yards per attempt (8.8) and 9th in passing efficiency (175.2) if he’d played enough to qualify. Manning has him beat in two of those three categories and has one more touchdown than Ewers, but got to face a couple of very leaky defenses in his two starts while Ewers won a game at the Big House.
4. Magnolia Bowl with Margins for Error On the Line — #9 Ole Miss at #13 LSU
There are six one-loss SEC teams ranked in the Top 15 and eight ranked in the Top 25, and there just won’t be room in the Playoff for all of them. The games those teams play against each other the rest of the way will perhaps be the most consequential in determining how many and which end up getting At Large bids…not that the Magnolia Bowl needs any fuel added to the fire.
The second-most played rivalry for both teams sees LSU lead 65-43-4 on the field including two vacated wins of its own and one vacated Ole Miss win.
The Rebels are looking to beat LSU twice in a row for the first time since 2008-09 after a 55-49 home win last season thanks to 21 points in the 4th quarter. The Rebels are looking for their first win in Baton Rouge since 2008 after dropping their last seven visits (including both of LSU’s vacated wins in the series).
This is the first meeting with both ranked in the AP Top 15 since 2003, when #3 LSU won 17-14 at #15 Ole Miss. LSU is 4-2 in Top 15 matchups with Ole Miss, with all five prior to 2003 being Top 10 matchups in a six-season span from 1958-62 (most famous among them Billy Cannon’s Halloween run en route to the 1959 Heisman).
LSU’s won four straight since dropping its opener to USC while Ole Miss is looking for two in a row since its stumble at Kentucky
LSU’s allowed just 27 points in its last two games combined (granted against UCLA and South Alabama) after giving up at least that many in its first two games against FBS opponents and 21 to Nicholls in between. QB Garrett Nussmeier is tied for fifth in the FBS with 15 passing touchdowns, seventh with 1,652 passing yards and 15th completing 69.7% of his passes.
Ole Miss suffocated South Carolina (which put 33 points on LSU in a 3-point loss) in last week’s 27-3 bounce back win, the Rebels’ fourth time allowing single-digits this season and fifth time holding an opponent under 14 points. QB Jaxson Dart has just one touchdown pass over his last two games (none last week) and completed only 14-of-27 attempts last week at South Carolina, but is second in the FBS with 2,100 passing yards.
5. Anyone Else Want a Second Loss? — #5 Georgia (vs Miss St), #7 Alabama (vs South Carolina), #8 Tennessee (vs Florida) and #21 Missouri (vs UMass)
The rest of the one-loss SEC crowd, and it is certainly a crowd, either face opponents outside their cohort or are off this week. Tennessee is favored by over two touchdowns against Florida as of Sunday while the others in action are favored by even more, not that that stopped Alabama losing at Vandy last week.
Georgia let Auburn hang around for a bit in its follow-up to losing an instant classic at Alabama, but eventually cruised to a 31-13 win for its 43rd in its last 44 regular season games. It’ll look to beat Mississippi State for the fifth straight time since a 2010 loss in Starkville and the 12th straight time in Athens, where Mississippi State hasn’t won since 1956 (its only other win there came in 1914).
Alabama will look to avoid a second straight loss after becoming the one in Vandy’s 1-60 record against the Top 5 all-time. The Tide haven’t lost back-to-back games since the final two in 2013 (the Kick-6 and the aforementioned Sugar Bowl loss to Oklahoma) and haven’t lost consecutive games to unranked opponents since Nick Saban’s first season in 2007 (as part of a four-game overall skid).
Tennessee is looking to avoid losing to consecutive unranked opponents for the first time since 2020 and looking to avoid losing its first home game to an unranked opponent since 2021 (won 14 straight at home against unranked teams). The Vols haven’t lost at home while favored by at least two touchdowns (as they likely will be this week) since an infamous loss to Georgia State to open the 2019 season.
Missouri losing to UMass wouldn’t just end its already-slim Playoff hopes, it might jeopardizd Eli Drinkwitz’s tenure as Tigers coach. Mizzou’s loss at Texas A&M was only really embarrassing for the margin (41-10), but losing to UMass would be embarrassing by any margin. The Minutemen are 0-17 against AP Top 25 opponents this century with 16 of the 17 losses by double-digits and a combined margin of 840-285. They’re 0-11 in the 21st century against SEC teams by a 408-195 margin with eight double-digit losses.
6. The New Heisperson Frontrunner Sure Does Run — Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty
Officially the new Heisman favorite after needing just 13 carries and two quarters to rack up 186 more rushing yards last week, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is the eighth player in FBS history with 1,000 yards through the first five games of a season according to ESPN and the first since Stanford’s Bryce Love in 2017.
He’d be the first running back to win the Heisman since Derrick Henry in 2015 and the first player to win from a team outside a Power conference since either BYU’s Ty Detmer in 1990 out of the WAC (correct answer) or Miami’s Gino Torretta in 1992 out of the Big East (if you wanna be weird about the Big East).
Jeanty’s the FBS leader in everything important rushing-related — namely 206.2 yards per game, 1,031 rushing yards, 16 rushing touchdowns and his 10.9 yards per carry are most among players averaging 10 carries a game.
Jeanty’s 16 rushing touchdowns (four more than anyone else) have averaged 34.3 yards and covered 549 yards combined, which would rank 22nd in the FBS (excluding his actual rushing total from the rankings). His 79 non-touchdown runs have averaged 6.1 yards and covered 482 yards, which would rank 30th. He is literally two top-30 rushers in one.
7. Used to Be a Great Rose Bowl — #4 Penn State at USC
Penn State became the only FBS team to start each of the last four seasons 5-0 last week, and with carnage all around them the Nittany Lions also rose three spots to match their highest ranking since 2017. Part of the carnage behind Penn State left USC first out of the Top 25 after spending last week first out of the Top 10.
This is the first time Penn State has ever had four straight 5-0 starts. The Nittany Lions improved to 48-1 over the last decade when leading at halftime last week, a record that will be particularly easy for them to maintain if they continue shutting opponents out in the 3rd quarter. PSU has a 45-0 edge in the 3rd quarter this season.
USC’s 1-2 in conference play for the first time since Clay Helton’s final season in 2021 and looking to avoid opening its Big Ten-ure with its worst four-game conference start since 2001 when it lost the first three Pac-12 games of Pete Carroll’s tenure as head coach (got first Pac-10 win in fourth conference game).
The Trojans are 6-4 against Penn State all-time with wins in the last three meetings including their last two Rose Bowl encounters capping the 2008 and 2016 seasons.
The other Rose Bowl was their first-ever meeting capping the 1922 season in the ninth Rose Bowl Game, also won by USC.
This is the first time they’ve played in the regular season since 2000 in East Rutherford (the first of USC’s three straight wins in the series) and the first time they’ve played a regular season game at USC since 1991.
USC is 5-0 against Penn State in California while Penn State is 4-1 in against USC everywhere else (2-0 in Pennsylvania).
8. Everyone Predicted the Big 12’s Last Unbeaten Teams — #11 Iowa State and #14 BYU
The ‘Clones and Cougs are the last unbeaten teams standing in the Big 12, both 5-0 overall, 2-0 in conference and slim favorites to stay perfect this week with Iowa State -3 to beat West Virginia and BYU -3.5 to beat Arizona as of Sunday.
ISU had a 24-7 edge after halftime to blow open a game it led 19-14 at the break last week against Baylor, improving to 5-0 for the first time since 1980. They followed up that 5-0 start with five straight losses and finished 6-5 and will look to reach 6-0 for the second time in program history (just like Indiana did!).
BYU’s last win was also over Baylor before last week’s bye. They’re 5-0 for the eighth time in program history, three of which have come under Kalani Sitake — who matches the legendary LaVell Edwards for the most 5-0 starts by a BYU head coach. The win at Baylor was BYU’s first-ever Big 12 road win after going 0-5 last season in their first Big 12 campaign.
9. Big 12 After Dark — #18 Kansas State at Colorado and #16 Utah at Arizona State (Friday)
The two juiciest matchups in the Big 12 this week involve the conference’s one-loss teams, two of them ranked and on the road against two who aren’t ranked but probably will be with wins. There’s a distinct Pac-12 After Dark flare to the whole situation with kickoffs after 10 eastern time and three former Pac-12 teams out of the four.
Kansas State is the lone incumbent Big 12 team involved in these games, but has plenty of history with the team it’s visiting in Colorado. The teams last met in 2010 in Colorado’s final Big 12 season the first time around, before which they’d met annually since 1948. Colorado leads the series 45-20-1 all-time including a 28-5 mark in Boulder. Both teams are coming off byes after blowout wins — K-State by 22 points over then-#20 Oklahoma State while Coach Prime’s Buffs won by 27 at UCF.
Former Pac-12 South rivals Arizona State and Utah have much less history than K-State and Colorado despite sharing a conference much more recently. The Utes have won four straight meetings in a series ASU leads 22-12 all-time and which they split 6-6 as Pac-12 rivals from 2011-23 (hadn’t played since 1993 before that). ASU is 3-0 at home for the first time since 2018 and will look to hand Utah its second straight loss after the Utes had last week off following their 23-10 loss to Arizona. They’ll give every indication perpetual game-time decision Cameron Rising might play this week. He probably won’t.
10. This ACCtually Feels Right — Cal at #22 Pitt
Say what you will about conference realignment but Cal somehow feels right at home in the ACC. Maybe it’s just that the ACC and Pac-12 were always spiritual sister conferences. Pitt is also very much of a piece with the ACC’s chaotic nature after once seeming like an odd fit. Whatever happens between these teams it’ll probably be dumb, entertaining, and controversial.
The Panthers pitched a 10-0 shutout in the 4th quarter last week against UNC to extend their best start in over 30 years to 5-0 for the first time since 1991. Redshirt freshman QB Eli Holstein is proving why he was a five-star recruit to Alabama last year, tied for fifth in the FBS with 15 touchdown passes and 15th in passing efficiency. He’s the first Pitt QB to start his career 5-0 as starter since Dan fucking Marino in 1979.
Pitt’s ascension to the Top 25 means Cal gets another crack at its first win over an AP-ranked opponent since 2020 vs Oregon (lost 10 straight) and gets a crack at its first road win over a ranked team since 2019 at Washington. The Golden Bears haven’t beaten a ranked team either east of or outside of the old Pac-12 on the road since 2002 at #15 Michigan State with Kyle Boller under center.
11. Finally, the Unranked Unbeatens — Army (vs UAB), Liberty (Tuesday vs FIU) and Navy (bye)
Last but not least, quick shouts to the three unbeaten teams outside of both the AP Top 25 and the Power conferences.
Army looks to extend its best start since 1996 to 6-0 and the longest active win streak in the FBS to 10 straight as it faces perhaps the biggest disaster in the entire FBS, Trent Dilfer’s flaming trash fire at UAB. The Black Knights — who lead the FBS averaging 361.2 rush yards per game and are third averaging 6.8 yards per rush — should be salivating over the prospect of facing a UAB defense which is 127th allowing 227.2 rush yards per game, 118th allowing 5.19 yards per rush, just gave up 71 points to Tulane and has allowed at least 32 points to all four FBS opponents this season.
Liberty’s doing Jamey Chadwell things at 4-0, but is coming off an extended layoff after its game against App State was canceled due to Hurricane Helene following a bye. The Flames have won 16 straight in the regular season and 11 straight at home heading into Tuesday against FIU and are 4-0 for the second straight season and third time in five seasons. Head coach Jamey Chadwell has started 4-0 or better for the fifth straight season dating to his time at Coastal Carolina (reached at least 6-0 in each of the previous four).
Navy’s off this week after running its way to its first win over Air Force since 2019. Eli Heidenreich had 100 rushing yards and 101 receiving yards, believed to be the first Mid in history to top the century mark both rushing and receiving in the same game. This is also believed to be the first CFB preview document I’ve ever prepared with multiple active players named Eli. Navy is one win shy of clinching Bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019 and will look to start 6-0 for the first time since 1979 next week before Notre Dame looks to spoil the Service Academy party.